:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/0426Z from Region 3372 (N24W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul,
27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/2158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1913Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7 pfu at 24/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    45/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     40/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 165
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 168/165/160
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  010/010-008/012-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/45