:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1624Z from Region 3380 (S10W12). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul,
01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1338Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1607Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 153 pfu at 29/0920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1205 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(01 Aug). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Jul)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     99/40/40
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 179
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 175/170/165
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  011/015-008/010-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           10/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/60