:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0936Z from Region 3380 (S10, L=125). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (06 Aug,
07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05/1017Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 05/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 05/0226Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (06 Aug) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    55/55/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     75/20/05
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 176
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 170/168/166
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug   NA/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  027/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  009/010-009/012-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/40
Minor Storm           10/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/50