:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed at
07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug,
09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/0136Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    55/55/35
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     25/25/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 170
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  024/035-014/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/15
Minor Storm           40/20/05
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    70/30/20