:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/2152Z from Region 3405 (N10E65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 16/1413Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/1304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 732 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 160
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  014/015-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20