:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0000Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 21/2311Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/0120Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 346 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 151
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  008/010-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20