:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
03/0836Z from Region 3413 (N10W0*). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/2305Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 836 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 131
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 130/135/130
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  025/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  010/012-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/15