:Product: 1014RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Oct 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 14/0515Z from Region 3460 (S10W57). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 14/0202Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 13/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct), quiet levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct). III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 148 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-005/005-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 30/15/35