:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
14/0515Z from Region 3460 (S10W57). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 14/0202Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 13/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
13/2252Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 148
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/008-005/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/15/35