:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0505Z from Region 3463 (S17W44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct,
19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 338 km/s at 16/2140Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (19 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 137
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/008-014/018-015/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/60/55