:Product: 1024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1450Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 400 km/s at 24/1840Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
23/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
24/1759Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 121
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25