:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/1326Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/1941Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 26/0819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
26/0908Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 126
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 126/126/130
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  013/016-009/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/30
Minor Storm           35/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/20/40