:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
29/1309Z from Region 3474 (S17E12). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct,
31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 29/0944Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 28/2104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1889 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 135
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 130/132/134
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  017/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  018/022-015/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/50/20