:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1226Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov,
04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 31/2148Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Nov, 04
Nov) and quiet levels on day two (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 159
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 160/162/162
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  009/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20