:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1143Z from Region 3480 (S09E40). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov,
08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1233Z. Total IMF
reached 44 nT at 05/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 05/0905Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 155
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 155/152/150
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  031/062
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  023/035-011/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           35/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/30