:Product: 1110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Nov 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1604Z from Region 3477 (S15W53). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0538Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 10/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3914 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Nov), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Nov). III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Nov 144 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 145/150/145 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 019/030-019/030-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 35/35/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 55/30/35