:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period were two M1 events observed
at 18/0542Z and 18/1644Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov,
21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached an estimated peak of 315 km/s at 18/0288Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/1633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Nov, 20
Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 127
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  010/012-019/020-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/15
Minor Storm           15/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20