:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
27/2340Z from Region 3503 (N15E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 28/1809Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2305Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Nov), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (01 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 182
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 185/182/180
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  008/010-024/030-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/45/50