:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
28/2331Z from Region 3499 (S17W59). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 29/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/1122Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 392 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Nov), unsettled
to severe storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and quiet to minor storm
levels on day three (02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day three (02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 171
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 175/170/165
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  020/030-037/054-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           25/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/40/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/60/20