:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/0351Z from Region 3500 (S18W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 01/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 01/2342Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Dec), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (05 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 148
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 145/142/138
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  030/059
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/010-024/033-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20