:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/0806Z from Region 3494 (S17W96). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec,
06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/2056Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 02/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1806Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    30/30/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 139
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 136/134/130
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  024/033-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/10