:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
08/0112Z from Region 3513 (N19E27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec,
11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 525 km/s at 07/2339Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 133
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  005/005-005/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10