:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/2340Z from Region 3529 (S21W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec,
28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 481 km/s at 25/1349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1722Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 167
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  006/005-009/010-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20