:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/0501Z from Region 3529 (S21W52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 508 km/s at 26/1908Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0258Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Dec, 28 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 154
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  009/010-013/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20