:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/1151Z from Region 3629 (N05W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Apr) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (12 Apr,
13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 10/1219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1820Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Apr, 13
Apr) and quiet levels on day two (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    10/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 131
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 132/140/145
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  007/010-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/25