:Product: 0522RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 May 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22/0404Z from Region 3683 (S23W95). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/0319Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 267 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 May, 25 May) and unsettled to active levels on day two (24 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (25 May). III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May Class M 60/60/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 May 196 Predicted 23 May-25 May 194/190/188 90 Day Mean 22 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/008-011/014-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/35