:Product: 0604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
04/0631Z from Region 3697 (S18W20). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 04/0012Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 03/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 04/0010Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (05 Jun) and have a chance of crossing
threshold on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    25/25/20
Proton     20/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 192
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 190/185/180
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  013/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  012/014-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/20