:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/2233Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul,
05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 01/2101Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (04 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 164
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 180

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  014/018-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/30/20