:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
14/0234Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/0408Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/0438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1002Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 234
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 230/230/230
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/15