:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
17/0639Z from Region 3743 (S09W43). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 16/2230Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0342Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20 Jul)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19
Jul, 20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 224
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 225/225/225
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  007/010-008/008-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/40