:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
03/1602Z from Region 3813 (S22E44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05
Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/0032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
03/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0557Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 03/1245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 565 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep). Protons are likely to cross
threshold on day one (04 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     60/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 242
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 245/250/240
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 212

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/15/15