:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1546Z from Region 3905 (S10E66). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 22/1010Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/2051Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu at 22/0355Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 21/2130Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 179
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 180/180/185
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35