:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1607Z from Region 3901 (S06W08). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 23/0049Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/2104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 200
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 185/190/190
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/15