:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
24/0108Z from Region 3906 (S16E45). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 447 km/s at 24/1318Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
24/1316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1851Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 203
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 205/210/210
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15