:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
25/0742Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 25/0018Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/2207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/2318Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 220
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 210/210/210
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/15/15