:Product: 1126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/0023Z from Region 3906 (S16E19). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 26/0217Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0048Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (28 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29
Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 222
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 220/220/215
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  006/005-015/020-021/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/30
Minor Storm           05/20/35
Major-severe storm    01/05/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/60/70