:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1246Z from Region 3901 (S09W58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 27/1808Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1448Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2018Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Nov), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 225
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 220/220/215
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  015/020-021/028-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           20/35/10
Major-severe storm    05/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/70/40