:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0514Z from Region 3905 (S09W16). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 28/1713Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
28/0731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1711Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (01
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 214
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 220/220/215
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  019/024-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           35/10/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    70/40/15