:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2030Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 29/0157Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 29/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
29/1958Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 220
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 215/210/210
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  009/010-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/15/20