:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
30/0906Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec,
03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 30/1850Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 29/2315Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 204
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 205/205/205
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  006/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/15