:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1039Z from Region 3967 (S17E12). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 21/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1734Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 881 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (23 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 225
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 225/225/220
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  008/008-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/60