:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 14/1926Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 14/1920Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 14/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3981 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 180
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  026/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  015/020-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/45/40