:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 07/1015Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 07/0205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1829Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 17878 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 162
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 160/150/150
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  017/ 20
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  013/014-009/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/40/40