:Product: 0602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1036 km/s at 01/2106Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 01/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 02/2100Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 17 pfu at 01/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2057 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (03 Jun) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun). Protons
have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jun,
04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 140
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  059/064
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  042/069
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  031/048-015/020-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           35/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    79/60/60