:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun,
15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 12/0511Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 11/2230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 12/1857Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 441 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (14 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 142
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  011/015-024/032-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor Storm           20/40/25
Major-severe storm    05/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    55/75/65