:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun,
16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to major storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 12/2109Z. Total
IMF reached 18 nT at 13/0906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -16 nT at 13/0906Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1228 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Jun), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jun) and quiet to minor storm
levels on day three (16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 143
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  024/ 033
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  038/064
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  033/047-018/024-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor Storm           40/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    79/65/60