:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 14/1221Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 14/0411Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 14/0206Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 352 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jun,
16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 151
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  031/ 066
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  016/018-019/022-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/65/50