:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0312Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1051Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 669 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Jun) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     65/45/35
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 161
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  021/ 024
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  013/016-014/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/35