:Product: 0616RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jun 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (19 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 16/1739Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/0723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 647 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jun). III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun Class M 75/75/70 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 30/15/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jun 148 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 010/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 013/015-014/017-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/50/40