:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20
Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 18/2042Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 18/0540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/1011Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 892 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (20 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 137
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-018/024-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           15/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/65/25