:Product: 0619RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jun 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 19/0712Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/1004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 851 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun). III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun Class M 65/65/65 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jun 136 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 018/024-007/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 65/25/20