:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 19/0712Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2133Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (22
Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 136
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  018/024-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/20